Grain and Land

Food and arable land in Asian countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

Situation Research Report

 Preface

 The Belt and Road Initiative covers more than 40 countries in Asia, among which Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and Northeast Asia are the core regions. Food security and arable land resources are core issues for global sustainable development and also important directions for agricultural cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. This report focuses on 10 typical Asian countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Kazakhstan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine), as well as 4 countries that have close agricultural cooperation with China (Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Uzbekistan). Research will be conducted around key dimensions such as population, cultivated land area, self-sufficiency rate of grain, per-unit yield of rice, agricultural technology and industrial chain. Combined with data from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), agriculture departments of various countries and public research, a systematic analysis of the current situation, challenges and cooperation opportunities of regional grain production will be carried out.

I. Research the basic overview of the country

 The 14 countries selected for this survey are all core participants of the Belt and Road Initiative, covering tropical monsoon regions (Southeast Asia), temperate continental climate regions (Central Asia and West Asia), and plateau and mountainous regions (South Asia), with significant differences in agricultural types. The basic situation is as follows:

II. Analysis of Core Indicators

(1) Cultivated land resources

India has a cultivated land area of 156 million hectares (the largest in the world), but 60% of it is low-yield fields (red soil, salinization).

Pakistan has 22 million hectares of cultivated land (accounting for 25% of its territory). The Indus Plain has fertile soil but is threatened by salinization of irrigation water.

The cultivated land in Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) is concentrated in the major river deltas. The soil is fertile but the area is limited (Vietnam is only 0.07 million hectares).

Kazakhstan in Central Asia has 22 million hectares of cultivated land (accounting for 8% of its territory). The black calcareous soil is highly fertile but droughts occur frequently.

The West Asian countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia) have scarce arable land (Iran has 19 million hectares and Saudi Arabia has 3 million hectares), and they rely on oasis agriculture.

(2) Differences in self-sufficiency rates of grain

Highly self-sufficient countries (India, Thailand, Vietnam, Ukraine) : The self-sufficiency rate of rice exceeds 100%, and some are exported (Thailand is the world's largest rice exporter).

Moderately self-sufficient countries (Pakistan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Laos) : They are basically self-sufficient in rice, but need to import feed grains such as corn and soybeans;

Low self-sufficiency countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia) : The self-sufficiency rate of food is less than 50%, and they are highly dependent on imports.

(3) Major Crops and Yield per unit area

Crop structure

Southeast Asia takes rice as its core (rice accounts for 90% of Vietnam's grain output), and also grows corn and rubber.

Double-cropping rotation of "rice + wheat" in South Asia (India, Pakistan) (India's wheat output is 110 million tons, ranking second in the world);

Central Asia mainly produces wheat (Kazakhstan's wheat accounts for 80% of its grain output and ranks among the top ten in the world in terms of export volume).

West Asia (Iran) focuses on drought-resistant crops (wheat, barley) and cash crops (saffron);

Ukraine mainly produces wheat and corn (it ranks fifth in global wheat exports and fourth in corn exports).

Yield comparison per unit (2022 data) :

Rice: Thailand (5.7 tons/hectare) > Vietnam (5.6 tons/hectare) > Ukraine (5.5 tons/hectare) > Indonesia (5.2 tons/hectare);

Wheat: Ukraine (5.8 tons/hectare) > Kazakhstan (2.5 tons/hectare) > India (3.2 tons/hectare);

Corn: Indonesia (5.1 tons/hectare) > Philippines (3.5 tons/hectare) > Pakistan (2.8 tons/hectare).

Note: Due to aging varieties and insufficient irrigation facilities, countries like India and Pakistan have significantly lower per-unit yields than agricultural powerhouses such as China and the United States.

(4) Improvement of wasteland and expansion of cultivated land

Saline-alkali land: Pakistan's Indus Plain (with an area of over 3 million hectares), India's Ganges Plain (2 million hectares), improved through "irrigation and drainage integration + salt-tolerant crops (such as rice)" (such as Pakistan's "Salt-tolerant Soil Rice Cultivation Program");

Arid land: Iranian Plateau (accounting for 40%), promote drip irrigation + drought-resistant varieties (such as Iranian "Zetari" wheat);

Degraded land: Mindanao Island in the Philippines (deforestation leads to the degradation of red soil), implementing "agroforestry systems" (such as coconuts - rice intercropping).

(5) Agricultural product processing and utilization of by-products

Processing level:

Thailand and Vietnam: The rice processing industrial chain is mature (with a polishing rate of over 90%), extending to deep processing such as rice flour and rice bran oil (Thailand's rice bran oil production accounts for 30% of the global total).

In India, the processing and conversion rate of agricultural products is approximately 35% (68% in China), mainly focusing on primary processing (such as rice milling and flour grinding), and lacking high value-added products.

Kazakhstan: Wheat processing mainly relies on flour (accounting for 90%), feed processing (bran) accounts for 8%, and deep processing (bread, pastries) relies on imported technologies.

Indonesia leads the world in palm oil processing (accounting for 50% of global output), but rice processing is still dominated by small rice mills (65% rice yield vs. 75% in Thailand).

By-product utilization

Straw: The problem of straw burning is prominent in India and Pakistan (accounting for 60% of the total straw). In recent years, the promotion of "straw returning to the field + silage feed" (such as the "rice-cattle" circular agriculture in Pakistan) has been carried out.

Rice husk: The popularization of rice husk power generation technology in Thailand and Vietnam (Thailand generates 1 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually from rice husks), part of which is used for the preparation of activated carbon;

Rice bran: Japan has invested in rice bran oil processing in Indonesia (with an annual processing capacity of 200,000 tons of rice bran), but local enterprises lack sufficient technology, and only 10% of the rice bran is utilized.

(6) Agricultural Mechanization and Smart Agriculture

Mechanization level:

Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand) : The mechanical tillage rate exceeds 70% (the mechanical harvesting rate of rice in Vietnam is 60%), but small tractors are the main type (suitable for small-scale farmers).

South Asia (India, Pakistan) : Mechanical tillage rate 50% (in India, large tractors account for 15%, mainly serving large landowners), and manual labor still dominates.

Central Asia (Kazakhstan) : The mechanization rate is 80% (the agricultural machinery system left over from the Soviet Union), but the equipment is aging (with an average service life of 15 years);

West Asia (Saudi Arabia) : Highly mechanized (95% mechanical tillage rate), relying on imported large-scale equipment from Europe and America (such as John Deere tractors).

Smart Agriculture Application

Pilot stage: Thailand (Pilot "Digital Farm" in Chiang Mai, monitoring soil moisture through sensors and using drones for sowing), Indonesia (Promote "mobile APP guidance for fertilization" on Java Island);

Technology input: Chinese enterprises promote "Beidou Navigation + variable fertilization" in Vietnam and Pakistan (such as XAIRCRAFT's drones);

Challenges: Insufficient digital skills among farmers (only 10% of farmers in the Philippines use smart devices) and poor network coverage (4G coverage in rural Central Asia is less than 30%).

(7) Characteristics of the Agricultural Industrial Chain

Upstream (planting) : In Southeast Asia and South Asia, small-scale farmers are dominant (85% of farmers in India have less than 2 hectares of cultivated land), while in Central Asia and West Asia, state-owned farms/large farms are the main type.

Midstream (processing) : Thailand and Indonesia rely on multinational enterprises (such as Wilmar International) to lead processing, and local enterprises have weak bargaining power.

Downstream (trade) : Trade among countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is active (for instance, China imports rice from Thailand and wheat from Kazakhstan), but the proportion of processed product exports is low (for example, Indonesia's palm oil processed product exports only account for 15%).

III. Common Problems and Challenges

Constraint of cultivated land resources: There is a contradiction between population growth (such as the annual population growth rate of 1.5% in the Philippines) and cultivated land expansion. In some countries (such as India), urbanization leads to the loss of cultivated land (with an average annual reduction of 0.3%).

Climate change threat: Frequent floods in Southeast Asia (a 10% reduction in wheat production due to the 2022 floods in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam) and droughts in West Asia (a 25% reduction in wheat production in Iran in 2023) have led to weak disaster resistance capabilities.

Technology and capital gap: Small and medium-sized farmers lack modern planting techniques (such as soil testing and formula formulation) and funds (the average loan amount for farmers in Pakistan is only 200 US dollars).

Low-end industrial chain: Dominated by the export of primary products (for instance, Indonesian palm oil exports account for 80% of the total output), with low added value and vulnerable to fluctuations in international prices.

IV. Conclusions and Suggestions

(1) Conclusion

Grain production in Asian countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" presents the characteristics of "regional differentiation, resource dependence, coexistence of potential and challenges" : Southeast Asia and South Asia are the main rice-producing areas, and there is a large space for increasing per-unit yield. Central Asia and West Asia have scarce arable land but have advantages in characteristic crops (such as wheat in Kazakhstan and saffron in Iran). The overall level of mechanization and intelligence is relatively low, but the Belt and Road cooperation is promoting technological input and industrial chain upgrading.

(2) Suggestions

Technical cooperation: Promote China's hybrid rice and water-saving irrigation technologies, and establish "demonstration farms" (such as building salt-tolerant rice bases in Pakistan);

Extension of the industrial chain: Support local enterprises in investing in agricultural product processing (such as deep processing of Indonesian palm oil and development of Thai rice bran oil) to increase added value;

Disaster resistance capacity building: Cooperative construction of climate-smart agricultural projects (such as the rice flood early warning system in Vietnam and the drip irrigation drought resistance project in Iran);

Policy coordination: Promote agricultural trade agreements along the Belt and Road Initiative (such as reducing tariffs and simplifying inspection and quarantine), and establish a regional food reserve mechanism (referring to the ASEAN Food Security Reserve)